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Selected chapters from:

Fissile Materials in a Glass, Darkly:

Summary and Recommendations


Summary and Recommendations

Major Findings and Recommendations
Putting plutonium and HEU into forms not easily usable for making nuclear weapons is one of the most urgent security problems facing the world today. A great deal of the urgency derives from the severe economic decline that has occurred in the former Soviet Union since the late 1980s. Several political upheavals have accompanied that decline and the time-scale for these political changes has been on the order of a year or two. Further upheavals are possible and, if economic decline is not reversed soon, likely.

Despite the progress that has occurred between the United States and Russia on many nuclear-weapons-related issues, neither country has a coherent policy for disposition of nuclear materials. Russia is unlikely to act without U.S. leadership and reciprocity, especially given the rising nationalist sentiment that has accompanied economic decline in Russia in the last two to three years. There are already signs that such sentiment may take the form of Russian government policies favoring of preserving large stores of weapon-usable fissile materials and nuclear weapons, rather than reducing them. (1) Thus, the U.S. must develop its disposition policy with an eye to its effects in Russia. Given the danger that a global black market in weapons-usable fissile materials originating in Russia may develop, it is imperative that the United States choose a disposition policy and persuade Russia to do the same.

Weapons-usable plutonium also arises from the reprocessing of civilian spent fuel and this must be included in overall disposition policy. The governments of five key countries -- Russia, France, Japan, Britain, and India -- regard plutonium as a valuable long-term energy resource. They continue to operate reprocessing plants to separate plutonium from civilian spent fuel, but their capacity to use plutonium has lagged far behind the rate of its production. As a result, surpluses of civilian plutonium continue to mount, including in Russia. The United States is the only leading country that has wisely rejected the use of civilian plutonium because of its proliferation dangers and its high costs. It is therefore the only country that is in a position to exercise the leadership to persuade other countries to forgo civilian plutonium production at least for the time being, and to put all separate plutonium into non-weapons-usable forms.

Low uranium prices and an abundant resource base mean that plutonium will not be an economically viable nuclear fuel for many decades (if ever) even for those who regard it as a valuable resource for the long-term. This could provide a basis for attempting to achieve an interim, but universal, halt to civilian and military reprocessing. U.S. disposition policy must be compatible with exercising the leadership to get to this goal. An interim halt to reprocessing would allow time for the energy and security issues associated with plutonium to be negotiated without continuing to separate plutonium in the meantime.

Most studies have advocated that the United States consider the option of turning plutonium into highly radioactive spent fuel by "burning" some of it nuclear reactors as plutonium-uranium mixed oxide (MOX) fuel. Despite some advantages of this approach, it would create an infrastructure for long-term use of plutonium as a fuel in civilian power plants. This is highly undesirable from a non-proliferation standpoint, and has no economic advantages whatsoever.

Appropriate institutional arrangements for managing nuclear-weapons-usable materials for the long-term are needed. The DOE has made great progress on openness at the national level; it created a new office for disposition of nuclear materials in January 1994. It has also boldly taken the lead in rejecting the Advanced Liquid Metal Reactor, which would legitimize plutonium-based fuels, for plutonium disposition, despite pork-barrel pressures to continue funding it. Yet, nuclear weapons spending continues to be very high. This is evidence that the hold of the nuclear weapons makers, which produced conflicts on interest regarding health and environmental issues in the past, continues to be strong, despite the end of the Cold War. It remains to be seen whether the gains of the past few years, and notably of the last two on openness at the national level can be generalized throughout the weapons complex and sustained. Accomplishing that consolidation is essential to successful implementation of disposition policy.

Our principal recommendations for plutonium disposition are as follows:

It does not appear at this stage that there are any serious technical hurdles to the implementation of this policy, which is based on combining already commercial technologies. If this policy is carried out from the beginning with due attention to environmental, health, and safety concerns of workers and the communities near proposed facilities, it should be possible to put all separated civilian and all excess military plutonium into non-weapons usable form in a decade or less once the political decision is made to do so.

Other Findings and Recommendations - Plutonium

Other Findings and Recommendations - HEU


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Notes
1. Lydia Popova, Director, Nuclear Ecology Program, Socio-Ecological Union, Moscow, oral presentation to the IEER National Symposium on Weapons-Usable Fissile Materials held in Washington, D.C. on November 17 and 18, 1994. Se also Associated Press wire story on Russian nuclear scientists' views, November 3, 1994.
Institute for Energy and Environmental Research

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Last Updated April 17, 1996